Pantera Capital’s Bitcoin Prediction Hits the Mark, Reinforcing Four-Year Cycle Theory
Pantera Capital’s long-standing commitment to Bitcoin’s halving cycle has paid off, with the firm’s 2022 forecast for August 11, 2025 proving remarkably accurate. The crypto investment firm predicted Bitcoin would reach $117,482 by this date — and the actual price closed above $119,000, according to Coin Metrics.
The projection, made in November 2022 as Bitcoin neared its cycle low, was based on Pantera’s analysis of previous halving rallies and the diminishing returns observed after each four-year epoch. At that time, Bitcoin was on its way to a bottom below $16,000, which it hit on November 21, 2022. Since then, the price has surged more than 660%, now trading around $120,000.
Cycle Theory in Action
Pantera’s call adds weight to the theory that Bitcoin’s four-year cycles — driven by halving events — remain a powerful force in price action. These cycles typically follow a pattern: post-halving rally, cycle peak, correction, and accumulation.
Other analysts, such as Bob Loukas, have also used cycle theory effectively, pinpointing the start of a new four-year cycle in January 2023, just weeks after Bitcoin’s bottom.
“This Time Is Different”?
Despite the accuracy of past cycle predictions, some analysts argue the four-year pattern may weaken due to Bitcoin’s growing institutional adoption.
Since January 2024, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have achieved the most successful ETF launch in history, now holding 1.491 million BTC (7.1% of supply). Public and private companies hold another 1.36 million BTC, according to Bitbo data.
Investor Jason Williams suggests that the rise of treasury-holding companies could end the traditional cycle, while Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard notes that with 95% of BTC already mined, halvings may have little effect on trading supply. Instead, he sees demand being driven by spot retail investors, exchange-traded products, and corporate treasuries.
This article positions Pantera’s successful forecast as both a validation of cycle theory and a spark for renewed debate over whether Bitcoin’s maturing market will eventually break the four-year pattern.
