Analyst Notes Stability in Bitcoin and Futures Despite Policy Whiplash
As traditional financial markets reel from U.S. President Donald Trump unpredictable tariff regime, the crypto markets are showing surprising resilience, according to Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG).
“Despite the carnage in traditional financial markets, the crypto markets have been relatively orderly,” Cipolaro wrote in an April 11 market note.
He pointed out that, historically, risk-off events tend to trigger stress across crypto markets. Yet so far, even after the initial April 2 tariff shock, that pattern has not repeated — suggesting a possible maturation of investor behavior in the digital asset space.
Futures Liquidations Moderate, Tether Holds Peg
Cipolaro observed that perpetual futures funding rates have remained “persistently positive,” a sign of bullish sentiment among traders. While there were $480 million in liquidations on April 6 and 7—days after Trump’s first tariff announcement—he said the impact was relatively minor when compared to previous liquidation events.
Even Tether (USDT), a widely used USD-pegged stablecoin, briefly dipped below $1 but avoided any sharp depegging—an outcome that might have once triggered broader panic in the market.
“We have yet to see [typical crypto stress],” Cipolaro added, suggesting investor confidence is holding despite external shocks.
Trump Tariff U-turns Fuel Macro Confusion
The crypto market’s calm stands in contrast to the confusion sparked by the Trump administration’s erratic tariff policy. On April 2, Trump announced sweeping global tariffs — only to pause them 90 days later, on April 9, before reintroducing a base 10% tariff with exceptions. China remains targeted, with levies as high as 145% still in place.
Further muddling the outlook, the administration said on April 13 that its exemption of electronics from tariffs — previously granted on April 11 — would be temporary and still subject to future levies.
Markets, both traditional and digital, initially tanked after the April 2 announcement. Although crypto assets have stabilized somewhat, many traditional assets remain depressed compared to pre-tariff levels.
Bitcoin Outperforms and Gains Institutional Attention
Cipolaro emphasized that while Bitcoin (BTC) didn’t completely avoid market pressure, it has performed “far better than many other asset classes.”
“Perhaps investors are increasingly searching for stores of value not tied to sovereign countries,” he said, hinting that Bitcoin’s neutrality could be driving its relative strength during geopolitical turbulence.
BTC is currently down about 22.5% from its January peak above $108,000, and has traded sideways around $84,730 in recent days, according to CoinGecko. Its volatility, however, has not spiked to historic levels, making it increasingly appealing to institutional investors, especially those using risk parity portfolio strategies.
“Risk parity funds allocating to Bitcoin can help dampen its volatility — making the asset more attractive and potentially reinforcing a virtuous cycle of increased adoption and stability,” Cipolaro explained.
Caution Ahead: Potential Death Cross Signals Bearish Outlook
Still, not all analysts are convinced the calm will last. Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, warned in an April 12 commentary that technical indicators on both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are flashing red.
He pointed to the formation of a possible “death cross” — where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day average — a pattern often interpreted as a medium-term bearish signal.
“Markets may struggle to sustain upward momentum without a clear catalyst or a stream of positive macroeconomic developments,” Lienkha said.
Final Thoughts: Bitcoin Resilience Tested in Macro Storm
The crypto market’s measured reaction to Trump’s policy swings may signal a new phase of maturity, particularly for Bitcoin, which appears to be functioning as both a risk asset and a store of value depending on the macro backdrop.
While futures funding rates, stablecoins, and price action remain largely stable, looming technical patterns and ongoing macro uncertainty suggest that investors aren’t out of the woods yet.
As traditional markets remain volatile and the Trump administration’s trade agenda evolves by the day, crypto’s relative calm may soon be tested again. But for now, Bitcoin is holding the line—and gaining credibility in the process.
