Trade Tensions Threaten Longstanding Economic Structures, Dalio Says
Ray Dalio, billionaire investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates, has warned that the global monetary system is teetering on the edge of a historic breakdown, fueled by deglobalization and unsustainable trade imbalances exacerbated by the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs.
In an April 28 post on X, Dalio argued that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions are fracturing the world’s monetary, political, and economic orders, creating irreversible shifts that will force nations to rethink their global partnerships.
“Importers and exporters are drastically reducing interdependencies with the U.S. and making alternative plans,” Dalio wrote.
— Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) April 28, 2025
The result, he added, will be a reorganization of global trade that increasingly bypasses the U.S. dollar, eroding America’s role as the world’s consumer and debt issuer of last resort.
The U.S. Dollar’s Fragile Future
Dalio criticized the long-held assumption that global trade partners would continue to sell goods to the United States and hold dollars indefinitely, calling it “naive thinking.”
As alternative trade networks emerge, Dalio warned, countries may shift toward alternative currencies to settle international trade — although he did not specify which alternatives could dominate.
However, Dalio has historically championed “hard money” assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and gold as hedges against global monetary instability.
His comments come at a time when Bitcoin continues to trade strongly, currently priced at around $94,454, as investors seek alternatives to fiat currencies amid rising geopolitical risk.
A Call for Coordination, Not Conflict
Dalio urged U.S. policymakers to adopt calmer, more coordinated strategies rather than exacerbating tensions through protectionism and political infighting.
“Dealing with the U.S. government debt problem head-on would lead to much better results than the path we appear to be on,” he said.
He stressed that the focus should shift away from day-to-day market fluctuations and instead address the fundamental structural changes reshaping global economic power.
Unfortunately, Dalio lamented, the U.S. response so far has been characterized by “disturbing fighting and volatility” that is setting the stage for “irreversible bad consequences.“
Tariffs Hit Global Supply Chains — Including Bitcoin Mining
Trump’s latest round of tariffs includes:
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145% duties on all Chinese imports
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25% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico
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Significant tariffs on Southeast Asian nations like Thailand (36%), Indonesia (32%), and Malaysia (24%)
These measures are already disrupting critical industries, including Bitcoin mining equipment manufacturing, which heavily relies on supply chains from Asia.
Higher tariffs on countries like Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia have already begun to impact Bitcoin mining rig imports into the U.S., potentially raising operational costs for American mining firms.
Final Thoughts: Bitcoin as a Beneficiary of Global Fragmentation?
Dalio’s stark warning underscores a growing consensus among analysts: we are entering a new era of monetary uncertainty.
As confidence in centralized monetary systems weakens, assets like Bitcoin and gold could gain even greater relevance — not just as speculative bets, but as foundations of a new financial order.
Whether global leaders can course-correct remains to be seen, but as Dalio’s comments suggest, the tectonic plates of the global economy are already shifting — and crypto may be poised to benefit from the cracks in the old world.
