CMC Markets’ Carlo Pruscino Says Surprise Monetary Easing Could Propel BTC to New High

A surprise interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve could push Bitcoin (BTC) back toward its all-time high of nearly $112,000, according to Carlo Pruscino, a market analyst at CMC Markets. While markets currently expect the Fed to hold rates steady this month, a deviation from that outlook could have significant implications for crypto price momentum.

“When these two further rate cuts come, if they’re coming a lot sooner than expected, that will then impact heavily on the future price moves for Bitcoin and some other cryptos as well,” Pruscino told Cointelegraph.

$112,000 Remains Key Psychological Target

Bitcoin reached a new peak of $111,970 on May 22, but has since retreated to around $102,766, according to CoinMarketCap. Despite the pullback, traders continue to eye $112,000 as a critical psychological level for Bitcoin.

“The upside target that traders have in mind is $112,000, that is the psychological level,” Pruscino said, emphasizing the importance of macro catalysts in sustaining bullish momentum.

Markets Expect Fed to Hold in June

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 97.5% of market participants currently expect the Fed to maintain the federal funds rate in its current range of 4.25% to 4.50% at the upcoming June 18 policy meeting.

While that decision is likely to keep markets stable in the near term, analysts like Pruscino believe that any early or unexpected easing could shift risk appetite and drive BTC and other cryptocurrencies higher.

Tariff Policy Adds Uncertainty to Fed Outlook

Pruscino said that while the Fed has “enough data” to justify a policy shift, trade policy uncertainty—particularly from President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff agenda—remains a key unknown.

“As they’ve mentioned many times in their statements, the unknown is tariff policy and trade policy, so they need to have some clear evidence on that,” he said.

On May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked Trump from imposing certain tariffs, arguing that he had overstepped his authority. However, an appeals court subsequently allowed the tariffs to continue, and Trump has since doubled duties on foreign steel and aluminum to 50%.

The uncertain legal landscape surrounding tariffs adds further complexity to the Fed’s decision-making process and complicates efforts to forecast rate cuts.

Improved Risk Sentiment Needed for Breakout

Beyond monetary policy, Pruscino noted that a breakout above $112,000 would also require a sustained return to “risk-on” market sentiment.

“There needs to be a continuation of risk-on, improved risk sentiment for $112,000 to be cracked, to push higher when you get catalysts,” he said.

In recent weeks, sentiment in both crypto and equities has cooled as traders reassess the timeline for monetary easing amid mixed economic data.

Jobs Report Will Be Key Indicator

The upcoming U.S. jobs report, due for release on June 6 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be closely watched by both traditional and digital asset markets. The data is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping expectations around the Fed’s next moves.

“Going into this number here, we’ve had some weak U.S. activity just recently,” Pruscino said. “So the number’s going to try and be strong enough to negate some of that weak activity that we’ve had.”

A strong report could actually delay rate cuts, by reinforcing the view that the U.S. economy does not yet require additional stimulus.

“If you get a large number of, say, plus 250,000 jobs, then that’ll be a slight surprise to the markets, and that will then lead the markets to think, well, perhaps the Fed may further delay their rate cuts this year,” Pruscino added.

Bitcoin’s Near-Term Trajectory Hinges on Fed Signals

Bitcoin’s recent pullback has cooled momentum in the broader crypto space, with many traders awaiting clear signals from the Fed or major macroeconomic events to determine the next leg of the trend.

The Fed’s current cautious approach, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks, tariff-related uncertainty, and mixed economic data, means markets may remain range-bound in the near term unless a strong catalyst emerges.

That catalyst could be a surprise rate cut, a weaker-than-expected jobs report, or a sudden shift in global risk sentiment.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s path back to $112,000 may depend more on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions than on crypto-native developments. While the market currently expects the Fed to hold rates steady, a surprise early rate cut could reignite bullish momentum and drive BTC back toward all-time highs.

For now, all eyes are on the June 6 U.S. jobs report and the June 18 Fed meeting. Should economic conditions weaken and policy turn dovish sooner than expected, the crypto market could be poised for a significant breakout — with Bitcoin once again leading the charge.