Social Media Analysis Reveals Near Parity in Bullish and Bearish Comments — a Pattern Not Seen Since Trump’s Tariffs Shocked Markets
Retail sentiment around Bitcoin has hit its most cautious level in months, according to blockchain analytics firm Santiment, signaling potential for a trend reversal as large holders continue to accumulate the leading cryptocurrency.
Social Media Sentiment Approaches April Lows
In a post on Thursday, Santiment’s marketing director Brian Quinlivan reported that trader sentiment had become unusually bearish, noting that the ratio of bullish-to-bearish comments had dropped to 1.03-to-1 — the lowest since April 6, when former U.S. President Donald Trump’s global tariff announcement sparked a sell-off across financial markets.
“Crypto is in a bit of a lull,” Quinlivan wrote, adding that “traders are showing signs of impatience and bearish sentiment.”
This level of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in retail sentiment is typically interpreted by analysts as a contrarian bullish indicator, based on the principle that markets tend to move opposite to crowd expectations.
Santiment’s Methodology and Findings
Santiment’s Sanbase platform monitors sentiment across platforms like Telegram, Discord, Reddit, and X (formerly Twitter) to gauge public mood on cryptocurrencies. The platform parses both volume and tone of posts to generate sentiment analytics.
“This kind of bearish retail sentiment often precedes rebounds,” Quinlivan added, “especially when it coincides with quiet periods in price action.”
Fear & Greed Index Slides Into Neutral
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, another popular sentiment tool, also reflected the cooling market mood, dropping to 54 out of 100 on Friday — moving from “Greed” to “Neutral.”
The index incorporates a combination of metrics, including:
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Google Trends
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Social media sentiment
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Market momentum
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Price volatility
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Market dominance
Over the last week (June 9–15), the index averaged 61 (“Greed”), while last month’s average was 70, also indicating elevated investor optimism.
The gradual decline in this score over recent weeks suggests a growing sense of hesitation or consolidation among retail investors, despite price stability.
Whales and Retail Traders Move in Opposite Directions
In a separate analysis, Santiment reported a divergence in behavior between large and small Bitcoin holders.
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Over the last 10 days, 231 new wallets accumulated more than 10 BTC each.
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In contrast, more than 37,000 small wallets (holding under 10 BTC) reduced or liquidated their positions.
“When large wallets accumulate as retail loses confidence, this is historically the right combination for bullish momentum to inevitably return,” said Quinlivan.
This divergence suggests institutional or high-net-worth entities may be using recent weakness and pessimism to accumulate at perceived discounts, while smaller traders are capitulating or locking in modest profits.
Current Market Outlook
As of publication, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $104,600, representing a 3% gain over the last 14 days, according to CoinGecko. While the price remains significantly below the May 22 all-time high of $111,970, it has held above the psychologically important $100,000 level for several weeks.
Ethereum Sees Similar Accumulation Patterns
The trend isn’t limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH) has also seen notable accumulation by whales, even as smaller holders appear to be selling into strength.
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Whale wallets have reportedly acquired over 1.4 million ETH in the past month.
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Retail selling pressure has provided these larger players with an opportunity to build positions quietly.
Bitget COO Vugar Usi Zade told Cointelegraph earlier in June that retail behavior is shifting. He noted that everyday investors are increasingly interested in real-world use cases and long-term value, rather than speculative trading.
“Retail trading has shifted away from rampant speculation and toward more practical and sustainable use cases,” Usi Zade explained.
What It Means for Investors
While overall market sentiment remains mixed, the alignment of bearish retail sentiment with whale accumulation is often cited by analysts as a bullish divergence. Historically, such periods have preceded strong price rallies, particularly when markets enter a consolidation phase.
However, investors should also be aware of macroeconomic headwinds, including:
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Geopolitical risks, such as ongoing Middle East tensions
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The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions
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The lingering effects of Trump’s tariff policies on global risk assets
All of these could impact short-term price action and market confidence.
Conclusion
Bitcoin sentiment is sitting at a critical crossroads. With retail traders increasingly cautious and institutional players buying the dip, markets may be gearing up for a shift in momentum.
While no major breakout has occurred yet, history suggests that when sentiment is this evenly divided and whales are accumulating, a significant price move — possibly upward — may not be far off.
As always, investors are advised to remain cautious, do their own research, and prepare for volatility in either direction.
