Analyst Says Bitcoin Hitting $200K in 2024 ‘Very Improbable’ Despite Long-Term Bullish Outlook
While some industry insiders are predicting that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2024, one leading analyst believes the milestone is unlikely this year due to a lack of supporting trading volume.
Momentum Lacking for Rapid Price Surge
James Check, lead analyst at on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, expressed skepticism in a recent interview, noting that while Bitcoin has already achieved key price targets this year, the volume needed to sustain further growth appears to be missing.
“How on earth can we be going up when there is no volume?” Check asked, emphasizing that the absence of strong buying pressure makes a rapid move to $200,000 “very improbable.”
While Bitcoin recently surpassed $120,000 on July 14, Check argues that crossing additional thresholds like $130K, $140K, and $150K requires more than just momentum — it demands consistent support and market stability.
“It’s one thing to get there, it’s another thing to stay there,” he said. “You need to follow through; otherwise, you’re trading through air, and you’re going to trade like it’s air on the way back down.”
Quantile Model Update
Bitcoin Price: ~$120K
Risk Score (current quantile): 72%120K is the new base pic.twitter.com/iJL1pNly96
— Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital (@Sina_21st) July 22, 2025
Long-Term Bullish Outlook Remains
Despite his short-term caution, Check remains bullish over the long run. He stated that most of his net worth is allocated to Bitcoin, and he believes the asset will be “well and truly” above $200,000 within five years.
However, in the current climate, he remains conservative with his trading strategy. “Until I see that volume kick in, until I feel a bit more confident, I am certainly not going to put on any levered positions,” he explained.
Contrasting Predictions from Other Analysts
While Check takes a cautious view of Bitcoin’s short-term prospects, several other analysts and institutions have maintained more optimistic forecasts:
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Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, forecasted in May 2024 that Bitcoin would hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing a supply shock caused by increased institutional demand.
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Anonymous analyst apsk32 pointed to long-term trendlines and projected a $200,000+ price by Q4 2025 based on historical scaling models.
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Bernstein Research has maintained its $200K by end of 2025 prediction since October 2024, attributing it to the growing influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs and BTC treasury companies.
On the other hand, analyst Rekt Capital suggested earlier this month that Bitcoin’s current bull cycle could be approaching its final phase, drawing comparisons to historical trends observed in 2020.
Conclusion
While the road to $200,000 appears challenging in the short term due to limited trading volume and market stability, many remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. The debate underscores the current uncertainty in the crypto market — where bullish optimism meets cautious realism, and the true path forward remains to be seen.
