Michael Saylor’s Strategy Has 91% Chance of Joining S&P 500 in Q2, Analyst Says
Bitcoin must stay above $95,240 to secure Strategy’s inclusion by June 30
Strategy (MSTR) — the Bitcoin-focused firm led by Michael Saylor — has a 91% chance of joining the S&P 500 in Q2, provided Bitcoin (BTC) maintains its price above $95,240 through the end of June, according to financial analyst Jeff Walton.
91% chance of $MSTR qualifying for S&P in 6 days https://t.co/uGkzAuTQ2Y
— Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) June 24, 2025
In a video released Tuesday, Walton explained that Strategy’s eligibility for the index depends on cumulative positive net earnings over the past four quarters — a core S&P 500 requirement. Because Strategy posted net losses in the last three quarters, it needs a strong Q2 to tip the balance.
Why Bitcoin Price Matters
Walton emphasized that Strategy’s adoption of accounting standard ASU 2023-08 — which marks Bitcoin at fair market value on the balance sheet — makes the company’s net income highly sensitive to BTC’s price. If BTC stays above $95,240, the firm’s Q2 earnings should be enough to meet the S&P 500 earnings criteria.
-
At the time of Walton’s analysis, BTC was trading at $106,044.
-
As of this writing, Bitcoin is around $106,200.
Historical Probabilities Are in Strategy’s Favor
Using data from September 17, 2014, Walton calculated the odds of Bitcoin dropping more than 10% over a six-day window — the time remaining until June 30:
-
Only 8.7% of six-day periods saw BTC fall over 10%.
-
Therefore, there’s a 91.3% chance BTC remains stable enough for Strategy to meet earnings targets.
This probability increases each day:
-
5 days left: 92.4% chance
-
4 days: 93.4%
-
3 days: 94.5%
-
2 days: 95.8%
-
1 day: 97.6%
Recent Volatility Still a Risk
Although the data leans in Strategy’s favor, geopolitical tensions — particularly the recent Iran–Israel conflict — briefly sent Bitcoin below $100,000 on Sunday. Nonetheless, BTC has since rebounded above $106,000, helping preserve Strategy’s potential Q2 qualification.
S&P 500 Entry Would Mark Crypto Milestone
If Strategy makes it into the S&P 500, it would follow Coinbase, which joined the index in May 2025 — signaling growing mainstream acceptance of crypto firms.
Meryem Habibi, chief revenue officer at Bitpace, said the development “cements the legitimacy of an entire asset class.”
In a separate milestone, Nasdaq added Strategy to its Nasdaq-100 Index in December 2024, highlighting the firm’s growing influence among institutional investors.
Bottom line: If Bitcoin maintains its current price levels for just a few more days, Michael Saylor’s firm could become the second crypto-aligned company to join the S&P 500, further solidifying Bitcoin’s place in traditional financial markets.
