Bitcoin Rally Driven by U.S. Fiscal Concerns, Not Hype, Says Analyst
Bitcoin’s latest surge past $121,000 is not the result of speculative mania but rather a macro-driven response to U.S. fiscal instability, according to a new market analysis by 10x Research.
Bitcoin Now a Macro Hedge
In a note shared with Cointelegraph, 10x head of research Markus Thielen argued that Bitcoin has outgrown its origins as a tech novelty and is now firmly positioned as a hedge against the growing U.S. deficit and loose monetary policy.
“The narrative has completely shifted,” said Thielen. “No one is talking about blockchain use cases or technological innovation — Bitcoin has become a macro asset, a defense against unchecked deficit spending.”
Thielen pointed to the passage of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) in July, which raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion — the largest increase in U.S. history. Originally pitched as a bill to reduce the deficit by $2 trillion, the legislation is now expected to add between $2.3 trillion and $5 trillion to federal debt over the next decade.
This $7 trillion swing from initial expectations has investors bracing for long-term fiscal turbulence, with Bitcoin increasingly viewed as a safe haven, alongside gold.
“This isn’t just another crypto rally,” Thielen said. “It’s a direct response to a U.S. fiscal landscape unraveling far quicker than expected.”
Bitcoin as a Beneficiary of Dovish Policy
Beyond fiscal concerns, the Federal Reserve’s expected pivot to rate cuts is another tailwind for Bitcoin, according to Thielen. With monetary policy easing, the conditions are ideal for risk-on assets like BTC to thrive.
“Bitcoin is the ultimate beneficiary in a world of high deficits and low real yields,” he added.
Catalysts to Watch
Several key developments are expected to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory over the coming weeks:
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“Crypto Week” in Washington, D.C.: U.S. lawmakers will debate three major crypto bills —
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CLARITY Act: Regulates digital asset markets
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GENIUS Act: Establishes a stablecoin framework
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Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act: Blocks government-issued digital currencies
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Trump’s Digital Asset Task Force will release a report on July 22, possibly proposing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
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Federal Reserve meeting on July 30: While rate cuts are expected, CME futures markets still show a 93% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged.
Analysts Eye Higher Targets
With Bitcoin hitting $122,000 on Monday, market participants are growing more bullish:
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Eugene Cheung, CCO at OSL, said BTC could climb to $130,000–$150,000 by year-end.
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Rachael Lucas from BTC Markets added that the milestone shows how embedded digital assets have become in institutional portfolios.
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Nick Ruck from LVRG Research noted that altcoins are expected to rally as investors diversify risk following Bitcoin’s lead.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin’s latest surge has technical traders watching key price levels, the underlying driver appears to be macro fear — particularly concerns over ballooning U.S. debt and a shift in monetary policy. With Bitcoin now viewed as a hedge against fiscal irresponsibility, the current rally may reflect a broader structural shift in how the asset is perceived globally.
