Bitcoin Hits Record Monthly Close at $107K, Analysts Eye Potential 9% July Rally
Bitcoin marked a historic milestone by closing the month of June 2025 at an all-time high of $107,100, setting a new monthly candle record. Despite forming a spinning top candlestick pattern—often viewed as a sign of market indecision—analysts remain optimistic, with expectations of a 9% rally in July.
Market Data
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Monthly close (June 2025): $107,100
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Previous monthly record (May 2025): $104,600
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April 2025 low: $75,000
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Bitcoin’s performance over past 24 hours: -2%, trading just under $107,000
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Weekly close (Coinbase): $108,380 (below key resistance at $108,890)
Over the past three months, Bitcoin has printed three consecutive green monthly candles, signaling a strong recovery from its April dip. Notably, all three of Bitcoin’s six-figure candle closes have occurred in 2025, with November 2024 being the next closest, closing near $96,500 following Donald Trump’s presidential victory.
Details
June’s bullish performance came with a spinning top candle, a formation characterized by a small body and long upper and lower wicks—suggesting a balance between buying and selling pressure. This pattern has historically preceded both rallies and corrections.
A similar candle appeared in July 2024, followed by a red hammer candle and a 8.6% price decline in August 2024, when Bitcoin fell to $59,000.
Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below the final major Weekly resistance
Thus a possible early-stage Lower High resistance may be developing here (blue)
Bitcoin will need to reclaim the red Weekly resistance as support on the Daily to invalidate this LH$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/qGGmQfxsqU pic.twitter.com/3pscHK0cs0
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 30, 2025
However, 10X Research’s head Markus Thielen remains confident. He notes that July has historically been a strong month for both U.S. equities and Bitcoin. Over the past 10 years, Bitcoin has posted positive returns in 7 out of 10 Julys, with an average monthly gain of approximately 9%. Even in years with negative performance, the losses remained in single-digit percentages.
Market Impact
The optimistic seasonal trend offers a bullish macro backdrop, particularly for institutional investors tracking correlations between traditional markets and crypto. However, some technical analysts urge caution.
Renowned analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that the weekly candle failed to close above key resistance at $108,890, instead closing slightly lower at $108,380. This may suggest a developing lower high resistance, signaling potential short-term weakness unless Bitcoin reclaims this level as daily support.
Outlook
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s price action in July will be crucial. While the spinning top pattern introduces uncertainty, the overall sentiment remains bullish, backed by seasonal trends, recent institutional inflows, and historical resilience during early Q3.
To confirm further upside, analysts stress the need for Bitcoin to break above weekly resistance and establish it as a support base. If this occurs, the next leg higher could be driven by a combination of technical breakout momentum and broader macro tailwinds.
As of now, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin can sustain its six-figure level and validate the bullish 9% rally forecast for July.
