Geopolitical Escalation Sparks Sell-Off, But Analysts Point to Historical War-Time Price Rallies
Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure on June 22 after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering fears of broader geopolitical fallout that weighed heavily on crypto markets.
BTC Falls Below $102K Following Trump’s Statement
TradingView shows Bitcoin (BTC) dropping sharply to $101,304, its lowest point in June, as Trump delivered a televised address via Truth Social, declaring:
“Iran must now make peace or face additional strikes.”
The escalation followed direct U.S. involvement in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, igniting concerns about global market volatility and drawing comparisons to prior war-time reactions in Bitcoin’s price.
Traders Brace for Volatility, Cite War-Time Rallies
Despite the sharp drop, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Crypto trader Merlijn reminded followers that Bitcoin has previously reacted positively to geopolitical turmoil:
“In 2022, $BTC pumped +42% in 35 days after the Ukraine war began. That was deep in a bear market,” he wrote. “Now it’s 2025. War fears rise again. But Bitcoin’s above $100K. And we’re still in a bull market. What happens if history repeats with more fuel?”
Potential Bottom at $97K, Deeper Dip Less Likely
Several traders are already mapping out potential support zones. According to popular analyst Cas Abbe, the most probable bottom lies around $97,000, based on order book liquidity data and prior support levels.
“A dump towards $93K–$94K before bottom formation and reversal,” he suggested, but assigned only a 20–25% probability to the lower end being reached.
Meanwhile, CoinGlass data continues to show strong buy-side liquidity near $97,000, suggesting it could serve as the first major defense line for bulls.
Weekly Close Eyes Lowest Level Since May
With only hours remaining until the weekly candle close, Bitcoin appears on track to log its lowest weekly close since early May, unless bulls stage a swift recovery.
Trader Crypto Tony emphasized the importance of $104,500 as a near-term resistance zone:
“I remain long over $93,500, but remember I really want to see the $104,500 hold for the bulls to remain in control.”
Bitcoin’s current level of $101,000–$102,000 puts pressure on this bullish threshold, risking further selloffs if no catalyst arrives.
Historical Context: Tariff Turbulence and BTC Rebounds
Some analysts have pointed to April 2025’s tariff-related BTC plunge, which was followed by a swift rebound to new all-time highs.
“BTC fell sharply when Trump announced reciprocal trade tariffs,” said analyst @stackeddata, “but once the dust settled, Bitcoin soared.”
This historical rebound has become a central point in traders’ arguments that market fears related to geopolitics can often provide fuel for recovery rallies once uncertainty fades.
Market Sentiment Turns Fearful
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a key market sentiment gauge, has dipped back toward “Neutral” territory, reflecting increasing unease among retail investors.
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Last reading: 54/100, down from 71 (“Greed”) earlier this month
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Contributing factors: war tensions, uncertain Fed policy, weakening equities
Altcoins mirrored Bitcoin’s decline, with Ethereum (ETH) falling nearly 5% to $2,500, and other major assets such as Solana (SOL) and XRP posting 4–6% losses.
U.S. Dollar Strength May Add Further Pressure
Alongside geopolitical headlines, market watchers are keeping an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which has begun to show signs of a bullish rebound from multi-month lows.
“Asset managers are heavily short on the USD. The last time positioning was this bearish, the DXY staged a notable rally,” said strategist Guilherme Tavares.
A strengthening dollar could further suppress Bitcoin, as historically, the two assets have traded inversely correlated during macro-driven volatility events.
Conclusion: All Eyes on $97K Support Zone
As the crypto market navigates a volatile weekend marked by military action and risk-off sentiment, traders are watching to see whether Bitcoin can hold above key support near $97,000.
While some warn of deeper downside toward $93,000, the broader consensus is that any sharp dip could be followed by a rapid reversal, mirroring prior conflict-induced price action.
If bulls can reclaim the $104,500 level in the coming days, analysts believe the market could resume its uptrend into Q3 — assuming macroeconomic and geopolitical risks do not escalate further.
Key Levels to Watch:
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Resistance: $104,500 / $108,000
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Support: $97,000 (primary), $93,500 (secondary)
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Risk: Increased volatility if Iran-U.S. tensions worsen or global markets enter full risk-off mode
Investors should brace for short-term turbulence but note the potential for medium-term upside, especially if historical patterns hold.
