Maelstrom Fund CIO says weak job data and slowing credit could trigger a crypto correction
Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom Fund and former BitMEX CEO, has issued a cautious outlook for the crypto market, suggesting Bitcoin (BTC) could retrace to $100,000 and Ether (ETH) to $3,000 in the face of deteriorating macroeconomic indicators.
In a post on X, Hayes said he believes mounting global credit stagnation, tariff risks, and weak job creation in the United States could fuel a market correction, especially after July’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed just 73,000 jobs added, significantly below expectations.
“Sluggish credit growth and a softening labor market are putting pressure on nominal GDP and risk assets like Bitcoin,” Hayes wrote.
Y? US Tariff bill coming due in 3q … at least the mrkt believes that after NFP print. No major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal gdp. So $BTC tests $100k, $ETH tests $3k. Come see my @WebX_Asia Tokyo keynote Aug 25 for more info. Back to the beach. https://t.co/zuHlwgQKC7
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) August 2, 2025
Hayes Takes Profits on ETH, ENA, and PEPE
Hayes’ warning comes after he cashed out over $13 million in crypto holdings. According to blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, Hayes recently sold:
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$8.32 million worth of ETH
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$4.62 million of Ethena (ENA)
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$414,700 worth of Pepe (PEPE)
Arkham Intelligence shows that Hayes’ wallet now holds approximately $28.3 million, with $22.95 million parked in USDC, indicating a defensive move toward stable assets.
Bitcoin Faces a Potential 18% Correction
Bitcoin, which hit a new all-time high of $123,000 on July 14, has since fallen 7.7%, currently trading around $114,600, while Ether is down 12.5% from its recent peak near $3,900.
If Bitcoin does retrace to $100,000 as Hayes suggests, it would mark a correction of 18.7%, raising concerns among bullish investors.
Hayes’ bearish stance echoes broader fears that risk assets could face sustained pressure from tightening credit conditions and trade policy uncertainty. The return of tariffs, particularly following recent moves by the Trump administration, has added to investor unease.
Not Everyone Agrees: “This Time Is Different”
Despite the macro concerns, some analysts argue that the current cycle is fundamentally different from previous ones.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that since BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF filing in June 2023, Bitcoin has shown “less volatility and no vomit-inducing drawdowns,” suggesting a maturing market.
Similarly, Mitchell Askew, head analyst at Blockware Solutions, stated:
“The days of parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over.”
Askew and others believe the entrance of institutional investors, improved market infrastructure, and increased regulatory clarity have contributed to more stabilized market behavior — a sharp contrast to previous crypto cycles marked by extreme boom-bust volatility.
Outlook: Defensive Stance Amid Uncertainty
While some remain optimistic about the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin and Ethereum, Hayes’ decision to rotate a significant portion of his holdings into stablecoins signals growing short-term caution among seasoned investors.
With economic indicators continuing to flash mixed signals, the coming weeks may test the resilience of crypto’s latest bull run — and determine whether the market truly has outgrown its volatility-prone past.
