Analysts Raise ETF Approval Odds for SOL, XRP, and LTC to 95% as Altcoin ETF Season Heats Up
Crypto analysts have dramatically increased the likelihood of spot ETFs for Solana (SOL), XRP, and Litecoin (LTC) being approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2025, signaling the arrival of what many are calling “altcoin ETF summer.”
95% Odds for Approval
In a recent post on X, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart revised their estimated approval odds for SOL, XRP, and LTC spot ETFs from 90% to 95%, citing increasing momentum and favorable regulatory sentiment. The same 95% odds were also given to a crypto basket ETF that could track a mix of digital assets.
“We expect a wave of new ETFs in the second half of 2025,” Seyffart commented.
Here are mine and @EricBalchunas‘ most recent odds on spot crypto ETF approvals by the end of 2025. We expect a wave of new ETFs in this second half of 2025. pic.twitter.com/H3pxJhqMy3
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) June 30, 2025
The SEC’s final deadline to approve or reject these ETFs is expected in October, while a decision on the crypto basket ETF could arrive within the week.
Broader Altcoin ETF Prospects
The analysts also assigned 90% approval odds to several other altcoin spot ETF applications, including:
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Dogecoin (DOGE)
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Cardano (ADA)
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Polkadot (DOT)
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Hedera (HBAR)
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Avalanche (AVAX)
Final SEC rulings on these altcoins are anticipated in Q4 2025.
Meanwhile, Sui (SUI) and Tron (TRX) ETFs filed by Canary Capital received more modest forecasts, with approval odds of 60% and 50%, respectively.
In June, Balchunas noted: “Get ready for a potential altcoin ETF summer,” while Seyffart predicted that crypto index ETFs could secure SEC approval as early as next month.
First-Ever Solana Staking ETF Launching
In a major development, the REX Osprey Solana Staking ETF is scheduled to launch this Wednesday, becoming the first staking-enabled crypto ETF in the U.S.
The product overcame initial regulatory pushback from the SEC, which challenged its classification under securities laws. To gain approval, the fund managers agreed to invest at least 40% of the ETF’s assets in other exchange-traded products (ETPs), primarily based outside the United States.
This workaround paved the way for the fund’s launch and could serve as a template for future staking-related products.
SEC Slow to Move on Ethereum Staking
Despite growing interest in staking-focused ETFs, the SEC continues to delay key decisions in this area. On Monday, the agency postponed its ruling on whether the Bitwise spot Ethereum ETF can include staking features.
It also delayed action on the Osprey Bitcoin Trust, stalling the potential listing and trading of its shares.
With rising momentum, analyst confidence, and the launch of the first staking ETF, 2025 is shaping up to be a transformative year for altcoin ETFs—one that could significantly reshape investor access to crypto in regulated U.S. markets.
