Updated Forecast Sees BTC Surpassing Gold and Approaching $50 Trillion Market Cap

ARK Invest, the billion-dollar asset management firm led by Cathie Wood, has raised its 2030 Bitcoin price forecast, placing its new “bull case” target at a staggering $2.4 million per BTC — up from $1.5 million in its prior projections.

In an April 24 report, ARK’s David Puell outlined revised bear, base, and bull case scenarios for Bitcoin’s long-term price potential:

• Bear Case: $500,000

• Base Case: $1.2 million

• Bull Case: $2.4 million

Each scenario has been significantly revised upward from earlier forecasts made on February 11, where ARK projected bear, base, and bull outcomes at $300,000, $710,000, and $1.5 million, respectively.

Institutional Investment and “Digital Gold” Narrative Drive Growth

Puell noted that institutional adoption is expected to be the primary driver of ARK’s bull case, with a projected 6.5% penetration into the $200 trillion global financial market (excluding gold).

Bitcoin’s evolution as “digital gold” is the second-largest growth factor in the projection, with ARK estimating BTC could capture up to 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap by 2030.

“Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case,” Puell wrote.
“Bitcoin’s acceptance as digital gold provides a robust store-of-value thesis.”

A third pillar of growth identified by ARK is Bitcoin’s use as a safe-haven asset in emerging markets, where inflation and currency devaluation remain persistent threats. This segment alone could account for 13.5% of the capital inflow in the $2.4 million scenario.

Other Catalysts: Sovereign Treasuries and Bitcoin Financial Services

ARK’s projection also incorporates increasing adoption by nation-states and corporations holding Bitcoin in treasury reserves, as well as the development of Bitcoin-based financial services, including lending, insurance, and on-chain banking.

Combined, these use cases could propel Bitcoin to a market capitalization of $49.2 trillion by 2030, assuming a supply of 20.5 million coins.

That would make Bitcoin more valuable than the combined GDP of the U.S. and China, and more than double gold’s current market cap of $22.5 trillion.

Compounded Growth Still Required — Even in Base Case

Even ARK’s more conservative base case of $1.2 million per BTC would require Bitcoin to grow at a 53% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through the end of the decade — a feat rarely seen for trillion-dollar assets.

The bear case target of $500,000 implies a still-ambitious 32% CAGR by 2030, underscoring the high-risk, high-reward profile of ARK’s thesis.

Market Context and Political Tailwinds

Bitcoin’s recent price action has supported ARK’s bullishness. Since dipping to $75,160 earlier this year, Bitcoin has recovered strongly and is now trading in the $94,000 range.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has moved to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, further validating the asset at the sovereign level and potentially paving the way for deeper institutional and geopolitical adoption.

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Final Thoughts: A Moonshot With Macro Implications

While ARK Invest’s projections are undeniably bold, they are underpinned by a growing body of real-world momentum — from spot ETF inflows and corporate treasuries, to emerging market demand and macro hedge strategies.

If ARK’s vision materializes, Bitcoin won’t just be a store of value — it will be a systemic asset rivaling gold, treasuries, and even national currencies.

The path is uncertain, but the upside is historic. As Puell put it:

“This Bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual — and we believe it’s only just beginning.”